Probability is counting, carefully. Almost every error comes from either miscounting the
sample space or double-counting outcomes that satisfy two conditions at once.
The method
- The sample space is every possible outcome. For equally likely outcomes,
\( P(A) = \frac{\text{outcomes in } A}{\text{total outcomes}} \). List or tabulate the
space when it is small, two dice give 36 outcomes, not 11.
- Probabilities run from 0 to 1. An answer outside that range, or a
"probability" of 1.4, means an arithmetic error, check before writing it down.
- Complement: \( P(\text{not } A) = 1 - P(A) \). When a question says
"at least one", the complement is almost always faster than the direct count.
- Addition rule:
\( P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \text{ and } B) \). The subtraction removes
outcomes counted in both. If the events are mutually exclusive they cannot
both happen, that term is zero, and the rule simplifies.
- Decide whether events overlap before choosing the form. Drawing a king
and drawing a heart overlap, the king of hearts is both. Drawing a king and drawing a
queen do not.
Where marks are lost: forgetting the overlap term. For a
card that is a king or a heart, \( \frac{4}{52} + \frac{13}{52} = \frac{17}{52} \) is wrong,
because the king of hearts was counted twice. It is \( \frac{16}{52} = \frac{4}{13} \).
Worked examples
Example 1: building the sample space. Two fair dice are rolled. Find the
probability the total is 7.
The sample space has \( 6 \times 6 = 36 \) equally likely outcomes. Totals of 7 come from
\( (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) \), six of them.
\( P = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6} \). Counting the 11 possible totals instead of the 36
outcomes is the trap: those totals are not equally likely.
Example 2: the addition rule with overlap. One card is drawn from a
standard deck. Find the probability it is a face card or a spade.
Face cards: 12. Spades: 13. Both at once (the spade face cards) 3.
\( P = \frac{12}{52} + \frac{13}{52} - \frac{3}{52} = \frac{22}{52} = \frac{11}{26} \).
Example 3: using the complement. A fair coin is tossed four times. Find
the probability of at least one head.
Counting "at least one" directly means one, two, three or four heads. The complement is a
single case: no heads at all, which is four tails.
\( P(\text{no heads}) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{16} \), so
\( P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - \frac{1}{16} = \frac{15}{16} \).